FOR SAVE AMERICA VOTE DONALD TRUMP NEW PRESIDENT IN 2016 !

FOR SAVE AMERICA VOTE

DONALD TRUMP NEW PRESIDENT 

Electoral Map. July 13, 2016. TRUMP 246 | Hillary 210 | Toss Up 82

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Made by http://StatesPoll.com 

Based on General Election Match Up Polls.

(TRUMP vs Hillary )  

Electoral Map July 13, 2016

TRUMP 246 | Hillary 210 | Toss Up 82

References and detail below,

Considering Turnouts, Which State: TRUMP has 2% leads, I classify it as ‘lean to TRUMP’ (when TRUMP is behind, until 4% gap = Swing States.)

TRUMP already proved it GOP Primary&Caucus.(Especially in Swing States. (Avg poll numbers from Real Clear Politics.)

NH Primary. (avg 31% on the Polls -> Primary Day 35.3% +4.3%)

NV Caucus. (avg 42% on the Polls -> Caucus Day 45.9% +.39%)

Florida Primary. ( avg 43.0% on the Polls -> Primary Day 45.8% +2.8%) 

Pennsylvania. ( avg 48.3% on the Polls -> Primary Day 58.1% +9.8%)

1. Toss Up Swing States : Total 82 Electoral Votes

1) New Hampshire: (4 Electoral votes)

PPP (6/22-6/23, 2016)  578 RV

Hillary 43% | TRUMP 39%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_NH_June_2016.pdf

2) Colorado(9 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

 * Harper‘s poll(7/7-7/9) doesn’t show Cross tabs/ Sample and Methodology detail (i have no idea is this poll skewed or not.) so I didn’t include it. I’m waiting Monmouth Poll. 

(1) CBS News/YouGov(6/21-6/24, 2016) 

Hillary 40% | TRUMP 39% | Johnson 4% | Stei 1% 

my conversion: TRUMP 40.9% | Hillary 37.6% | Johnson 4.2% | Stein 1.4% 

( This Poll overweighted DEM. Underweighted REP )

details: http://statespoll.com/post/146504658435

3) North Carolina (15 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

(1) CBS/YouGov 6/21-6/24, 982 LV

Hillary 44% | TRUMP 42% | Johnson 2% | Stein 1%   

https://www.scribd.com/doc/316764934/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-North-Carolina-June-2016

(2) Civitas 6/21-6/23. 600 LV 

Hillary 42% | TRUMP 40% | Johnson 6% | 

My Analysis(Details): http://statespoll.com/post/146685716660

(3) PPP (6/20-6/21, 2016). 947 RV

TRUMP 43% | Hillary 43% | Johnson 4% | Stein 2% 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_62316.pdf

4) Nevada (6 Electoral votes)

(1) Monmouth(July 7-10th, 2016 ) 401 LV

Hillary 45% | TRUMP 41% | Johnson 6%

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_071116/

5) Ohio (18 Electoral votes)

Quinnipaic(6/30-7/11, 2016 ) 955 RV

TRUMP 37% | Hillary 36% | Johnson 7% | Stein 6%  

My analysis: http://statespoll.com/post/147336679435

6) Michigan: 16 Electoral votes

* GQR Poll(6/11-6/20) only had 300 LV.(too small for MI) so I didn’t include it.

(1) MI-Glengariff Group/WDIV-TV (5/24-5/26, 2016) TRUMP 39% | Hillary 43% (600 LV)

http://media.clickondetroit.com/document_dev/2016/05/31/May%202016%20Statewide%20Survey_1464708076371_6539948_ver1.0.pdf

7) Maine 2nd District (1 Electoral votes)

Maine 2nd district: TRUMP beat Hillary, Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram 6/15-6/21. 222 LV

TRUMP 37% | Hillary 36% 

http://statespoll.com/post/146482681535

8) Virginia: 13 Electoral votes

PPP (6/13-6/15, 2016). 1032 RV

Hillary 42% | TRUMP 39% | Johnson 6% | Stein 2%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_VA_61616.pdf

1-2. Hold

6) Oregon(7 Electoral votes) 

(1) TRUMP vs Hillary: Icitizen, 6/23-6/27, 555 RV

(This poll sampling is very suspicious, anyway until the next polls, I classify Oregon for Blue state)

http://statespoll.com/post/147278546405/oregon-trump-vs-hillary-clinton-icitizen

(2) Clout Research (5/10-5/13) TRUMP 44% | Hillary 42% (657 LV)

http://cloutpolitical.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2016/05/OR-Statewide-Poll-Memorandum-5-18-2016.pdf

1-3. Swing States which are lean to TRUMP : Total 55 Electoral votes

1) Iowa (6 Electoral votes)

Monmouth(July 8-11th, 2016 ) 401 LV

TRUMP 44% | Hillary 42% | Johnson 6% | Stein 1%   

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_071216/

2) Florida(29 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

(1) Quinnipaic(6/30-7/11, 2016 ) 1015 RV

TRUMP 41% | Hillary 36% | Johnson 7% | Stein 3% 

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/ps05102016_Sw4b42d.pdf

(2) JMC Analytics (7/9-7/10, 2016 ) 700 LV

TRUMP 47% | Hillary 42% | Johnson 2% | Stein 1% 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/JMC_Analytics_FL_July_2016.pdf

3) Pennsylvania (20 Electoral votes) 

Quinnipaic(6/30-7/11, 2016 ) 982 RV

TRUMP 40% | Hillary 34% | Johnson 9% | Stein 3% 

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/spa07132016_crosstabs_Smba72th.pdf

1-3. Swing States which are lean to Hillary : Total 20 Electoral votes

1) Minnesota (10 Electoral votes)

Star Tribune (4/25-4/27, 2016) TRUMP 35% | Hillary 48% (800 LV)

http://www.startribune.com/clinton-leads-trump-in-star-tribune-minnesota-poll/377701361/

2) Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes

PPP, 6/22-6/23, 843 RV

http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/WisconsinResults616.pdf

Hillary 47% | TRUMP 39%

2. Basic Red States for TRUMP: 180 Electoral Votes

Alabama(9),Alaska(3), Arkansas(6),Georgia(16),Wyoming(3)

Idaho(4), Indiana(11),Kansas(6),Kentucky(8),Louisiana(8),West Virginia(5)

Mississippi(6) Missouri(10),Montana(3),Nebraska(4),South Carolina(9) Texas(38)NorthDakota(3),Oklahoma(7),SouthDakota(3),Tennessee(11),Utah(6)

2-2. Kinda Red States which are lean to TRUMP : 11 Electoral Votes

1) Arizona: 11 Electoral votes

PPP, 6/22-6/23, 691 RV.   TRUMP 44% | Hillary 40% | Not Sure 16% 

http://aufc.3cdn.net/7df2e97a499c038248_9qm6bxwgr.pdf

3. Basic Blue States for Hillary: 143 Electoral Votes

California(55),Delaware(3),DC(3),Hawaii(4),Illinois(20)

Maine 1st(1),Maryland(10),Massachusettes(11),

New York(29),Rhode Island(4),Vermont(3)         

3-2. Kinda Blue States which are lean to Hillary : 40 Electoral Votes

1) New Mexico(5 Electoral votes) 

PPP (5/13-5/15, 2016) TRUMP 33% | Hillary 41% (802 LV)

http://nmpoliticalreport.com/44100/clinton-leads-in-nm-in-three-way-race/

2) Connecticut(7 Electoral votes)

(1) Quinnipaic(6/1-6/5, 2016 ) 1330 RV

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ct/ct06072016_Cvf63kbw.pdf

Hillary 41% | TRUMP 36% | Johnson 6% | Stein 3% (Page 4)

3) New Jersey(14 Electoral votes)

Fairleigh Dickinson (6/22-6/26,2016) 712 RV

Hillary 52% | TRUMP 31%

http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160629/

4) Maine Statewide (2 Electoral votes)

TRUMP vs Hillary. Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram 6/15-6/21. 475 LV

My Analysis Post:  http://statespoll.com/post/146485221410

5) Washington(12 Electoral votes)